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VELARION
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VELARION
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NYSE / CME Gold · LME London · TOCOM Tokyo
Markets closing in 30 days
Independence Day
Saturday, 4 July 2026
days
Upcoming
Labor Day
7 Sept 2026
Thanksgiving Day
26 Nov 2026
Christmas Day
25 Dec 2026
Holiday schedules are indicative. Always verify with exchange directly. CME Gold futures may have early close on holiday eves.
Weekly event distribution per currency
| CCY | MonHOT | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | WK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 9 | |||||
| EUR | 5 | |||||
| GBP | 4 | |||||
| JPY | 3 | |||||
| CHF | 2 | |||||
| AUD | 3 | |||||
| CAD | 3 | |||||
| NZD | 2 |
Last 8 major events — Actual vs Forecast
| Event | CCY | Forecast | Actual | Surprise % | Mkt Reaction | Dir |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFP | USD | 200K | 256K | +28% | — | |
| CPI | USD | 3.2% | 3.1% | -3% | — | |
| GDP | USD | 2.5% | 2.8% | +12% | — | |
| Retail Sales | USD | 0.3% | 0.4% | +33% | — | |
| ECB Rate | EUR | 4.50% | 4.50% | 0% | — | |
| UK CPI | GBP | 4.1% | 3.9% | -5% | — | |
| ISM Mfg | USD | 48.5 | 50.3 | +4% | — | |
| FOMC | USD | Hold | Hold | -7% | — |
Next 6 major CB decisions — rates & probabilities
Federal Reserve · USD
Current Rate
5.25–5.50%European Central Bank · EUR
Current Rate
4.00%Reserve Bank of Australia · AUD
Current Rate
4.35%Bank of Japan · JPY
Current Rate
0.10%Bank of England · GBP
Current Rate
5.25%Swiss National Bank · CHF
Current Rate
1.75%2025 meeting schedule — rates updated manually
Markets pricing 1–2 cuts in H2 2025
Disinflation on track; gradual easing expected
Sticky services inflation limits pace of cuts
Wage growth supports gradual normalisation
Rates updated manually. Next move expectation derived from recent news keywords — not financial advice. 2025 schedule (educational reference).
Pattern-based observations for Gold trading around key releases
Non-Farm Payrolls · USD
When NFP beats consensus, Gold typically sells off immediately as USD strengthens. However, the initial drop is often fully reversed within 48 hours as traders reprice the Fed rate path and real yields adjust.
Initial drop (beat)
—
48h recovery
—
Miss spike
—
Reversal rate
—
Actionable
Wait 15–30 min after release for the knee-jerk to settle. Enter on the retracement — NFP beats are buy-the-dip setups for Gold on the H4 timeframe.
Consumer Price Index · Inflation
Hotter-than-expected CPI initially strengthens USD and pressures Gold. But if the surprise exceeds +0.3%, markets begin pricing stagflation risk — Gold then catches a bid as the real-rate narrative shifts from hawkish to uncertain.
Initial USD move
—
Gold 1h reaction
—
Threshold surprise
—
24h reversal freq
—
Actionable
If CPI surprise > 0.3%: fade the initial Gold drop. Scale into longs on the first H1 higher-low after the spike. Target: prior session high.
Federal Open Market Committee
The 2 trading days before an FOMC statement are characterised by compressed ATR and tight range consolidation. Volatility expands sharply after the statement — the initial direction often reverses within 2–4 hours as Powell's press conference shifts tone.
Pre-FOMC ATR compress
—
Post-statement spike
—
Direction reversal
—
Breakout within
—
Actionable
Avoid new positions 48h before FOMC. Post-statement: let the initial candle close, then trade the reversal or continuation on the second H1 bar. Use 1.5x normal SL due to elevated volatility.
Historical average price movement after event release by surprise direction
Number of economic events per month — total vs high-impact
Next 7 market-moving releases with expected XAUUSD reaction
Typical directional bias per event × pair — hover cells for details
| Event | EURUSD | GBPUSD | USDJPY | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD | XAUUSD | XAGUSD | US500 | US30 | BTCUSD | USOIL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NFP Beat Strong jobs report | ↓ | ↓ | ↑↑ | ↑ | ↓ | ↑ | ↓↓ | ↓ | ↑ | ↑ | ↑ | ↑ |
CPI Upside Hotter than expected | ↓ | ↓ | ↑ | ↑ | ↓ | ↑ | ↓ | ↓ | ↓ | ↓ | ↓ | → |
FOMC Hawkish Rate hike / hawkish tone | ↓↓ | ↓↓ | ↑↑ | ↑ | ↓↓ | ↑ | ↓↓ | ↓↓ | ↓ | ↓ | ↓↓ | ↓ |
GDP Miss Growth below forecast | ↑ | ↑ | ↓ | ↑ | ↓ | ↓ | ↑ | ↑ | ↓↓ | ↓↓ | ↓ | ↓↓ |
PMI Beat Manufacturing expansion | → | ↑ | ↑ | → | ↑ | ↑ | ↓ | → | ↑↑ | ↑↑ | ↑ | ↑ |
* Bias assumes USD event beat. Reverse for miss. XAUUSD reacts inversely to USD strength in most cases.
How often economic releases get revised — and by how much
Revised lower 62% of time — initial prints overstate job gains
Core CPI tends to be revised slightly upward — sticky inflation confirmed
3 rounds of revisions — advance estimate least reliable, final most accurate
Control group often revised higher — consumer spending underestimated initially
Goods and services components revised independently — hard to predict direction
Based on historical BLS, BEA and Census Bureau revision patterns. NFP revised on average by ±42K from initial print.
How major economic releases typically move key instruments — Beat vs Miss
Beat means Actual > Forecast — typically strengthens USD, which is bearish for Gold and bullish for DXY. Miss means Actual < Forecast — USD weakens, Gold often rallies.
| Event | EURUSD | GBPUSD | USDJPY | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD | NZDUSD | XAUUSD | XAGUSD | US500 | US30 | NAS100 | BTCUSD | ETHUSD | USOIL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFP | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat— Miss— | Beat— Miss— | Beat↑ Miss↓ |
| CPI | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat— Miss— | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat— Miss— |
| FOMC | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss↑ |
| GDP | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↑ Miss↓ |
| PMI | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat— Miss— | Beat— Miss— | Beat— Miss— | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat— Miss— | Beat— Miss— | Beat↑ Miss↓ |
| Retail Sales | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat— Miss— | Beat↓ Miss↑ | Beat↓ Miss— | Beat↓ Miss— | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat↑ Miss↓ | Beat— Miss— | Beat— Miss— | Beat— Miss— |
Pre-event and post-event playbooks for upcoming high-impact releases
No trade setups available — setups are generated from upcoming calendar events and live COT data.
Composite momentum scores for major economies — divergence drives FX trends
Trading Implications
Strong USD momentum = Gold headwind. Watch for XAUUSD resistance at key levels.
Weak EUR = EUR/USD downside pressure. Divergence favors DXY strength.
JPY improving despite negative score — potential BOJ policy shift risk.
Follow the divergence: trade strong economies vs weak economies.
Scores composite: PMI, GDP growth, CPI trend, labor market strength. Range: −1.0 (weakest) to +1.0 (strongest).
Top 3 most impactful economic events per trading instrument
Hawkish Fed = Gold down, Dovish Fed = Gold up; can move $30-60 in minutes
Hot inflation paradox: first dip then rally; cold CPI = dovish hopes = Gold up
Strong jobs report strengthens USD and typically pressures Gold $10-25
XAUUSD is most sensitive to US macro data
Historical economic surprises and XAUUSD 1h market reactions
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | XAU 1h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10 | US NFP | 256K | 170K | MASSIVE BEAT | -1.8% |
| Jan 15 | US CPI | 3.2% | 3.0% | BEAT | -0.9% |
| Jan 29 | FOMC | Hold | Hold | HAWKISH | -2.1% |
| Dec 6 | US NFP | 188K | 175K | BEAT | -1.1% |
| Dec 11 | US CPI | 2.7% | 2.7% | IN-LINE | +0.2% |
| Dec 18 | FOMC | -25bp | -25bp | HAWKISH | -2.8% |
Major surprise events listed for educational purposes only. Past market reactions do not guarantee future results.
3 proven strategies for navigating economic event releases
Recommended for beginners: Strategy 1 (Avoid) — protects capital while you learn event dynamics
Close all open positions 30 minutes before HIGH or CRITICAL impact news. Re-enter only after the initial 5-10 minute spike stabilizes.
Execution Steps
Check calendar for upcoming events 1-2 hours before session
Mark all HIGH/CRITICAL events in your trading window
Set alert 35min before event
Close positions 30min before, no new entries
Wait for candle close 10min post-event before re-entering
Pros
Cons
Strategies are educational frameworks only. Always combine with proper risk management and your trading plan.
34
Total Events
8
High Impact
14
Medium
Gold Impact Score
HIGH risk level
Key Events This Week
High-risk week — reduce position sizes before FOMC announcement
FOMC Countdown
Wed, Feb 26 — 19:00 UTC
No probability scenarios available — scenarios are generated from upcoming high-impact calendar events.
Historical accuracy of economic events on Gold (XAUUSD) direction
Above forecast → USD up → Gold pressure
Above forecast → Fed hawkish → Gold bearish
Rate hike → USD up → Gold falls
Strong growth → mixed for Gold
Dovish ECB → EUR falls → USD up → Gold pressure
Moderate correlation with Gold
Strong sales → Fed hawkish → Gold bearish
Weekly, lower impact on Gold
* Accuracy represents % of cases where the event move direction matched the subsequent Gold move direction within 4 hours. Based on academic research and market analysis. Not predictive of future performance.
No active trade ideas — setups are generated from high-impact upcoming events. Check back closer to major releases.
Trade ideas are for educational purposes only. Always apply your own risk management rules.
FOMC
±1.8%
avg move
CPI
±1.2%
avg move
NFP
±0.8%
avg move
PPI
±0.6%
avg move
GDP
±0.4%
avg move
Retail Sales
±0.3%
avg move
Research-backed historical accuracy. Sample: 2015–2024 data (n≥200 events per type). Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.
No upcoming HIGH impact USD events this week with known Gold impact data.
Only HIGH impact USD events matched to research-backed Gold accuracy data are shown. Educational purposes only.
No upcoming high-impact events found.
Filters events containing central bank keywords: FOMC, ECB, BOE, BOJ, RBA, BOC, SNB, rate decision, monetary policy. Max 5 upcoming.
Coverage indicates data freshness. Higher full coverage = more events have released results with consensus data available for analysis.
Beat + Bullish = ALIGNED. Miss + Bearish = ALIGNED. Divergent signals may indicate market mispricing or lagging sentiment.
Mon–Fri week view. Refreshes every 5 minutes.
Score = HIGH×3 + MED×2 + LOW×1. Refreshes every 5 minutes.
Only events with both forecast and actual values. Refreshes every 5 minutes.
Distribution of 0 events by UTC hour. Amber = peak hours. Refreshes every 5 minutes.
Surprise = ((Actual − Forecast) / |Forecast|) × 100. Avg per currency, last 30 days. Green = positive surprises, Red = negative. Refreshes every 5 minutes.
GDP bottoms, employment lagging, early rate cut expectations.
GDP accelerates, inflation rises, rate hike expectations form.
Growth peaks, credit tightens, forward earnings revised down.
Contraction, safe-haven flows dominate, gold typically bid.
Simplified educational framework. Q1=Recovery, Q2=Expansion, Q3=Slowdown, Q4=Recession. Current quadrant highlighted based on calendar month.
High-impact = importance ≥ 3. Top 6 currencies by event density. Refreshes every 5 minutes.
Shows last 8 events where both Actual and Forecast are available. Beat = Actual > Forecast. Refreshes every 5 minutes.
Beat Rate = events where Actual > Forecast / total events with both values. Sorted by beat rate desc. Refreshes every 5 minutes.
Shows next 3 events with importance ≥ 3 (high/critical). Red border = within 30 minutes. Countdown live. Refreshes every 2 minutes.
Event distribution by weekday. Dots: red=HIGH, amber=MED, gray=LOW.
Next 5 central bank events (FOMC, ECB, BOE, BOJ, RBA, BOC, SNB, RBNZ).
Cumulative actual vs forecast deviation by currency
Shows next 3 events with importance ≥ 3. Red border = within 30 minutes. Refreshes every 2 minutes.
June 2026
Red border = HIGH impact day. Amber highlight = today. Dots: red=HIGH, amber=MED, gray=LOW.
Top 10 currencies by scheduled event volume
Next 5 events with importance = HIGH (3)
Top 10 biggest surprises (actual − forecast)
Event distribution across 24h × 7 days (UTC)
Events grouped by macro theme — 0 total events scanned
Last 20 events \u2014 refreshes every 60s
Actual vs Forecast comparison
All importance=HIGH events sorted by time
Event density \u2014 last 4 weeks
Currency \u00d7 Impact level event counts
Average absolute error: actual vs forecast
Lower error = more predictable data releases. Based on available historical calendar data only.
Events by day — current week at a glance
Shows event count and highest impact level per day for the current week. Amber border highlights today.
Currencies with HIGH events — active signal pre-positioning
Matches HIGH-impact calendar events to active signals by currency. PRE-EVENT POSITIONING badge appears when signals exist for the same currency.
Beat rate and average magnitude — USD / EUR / GBP / JPY
Based on available calendar data only. Beat = actual > forecast. Educational reference.
Next 24h event impact — high=3pts, medium=1pt
Last 10 released events — actual vs forecast
Rate decisions, FOMC, ECB, BOE, BOJ and more
Upcoming events next 7 days — high×3 + med×1
Impact score = high-impact events × 3 + medium × 1. Covers next 7 calendar days.
Events by day of week — high / medium / low breakdown
Score = high(3) + medium(1) events per day
Upcoming and recent Fed-related calendar events with impact context.
Source: /api/alerts?type=calendar · Fed/FOMC keyword filter · 1min refresh
Calendar events most impactful for XAUUSD: CPI, NFP, Fed, GDP, PCE.
Source: /api/alerts?type=calendar · USD + keyword filter · 1min
Risk level for each trading day this week based on high-impact event count.
Source: /api/alerts?type=calendar · RED = 3+ high-impact · 1min
Bar comparison of recent economic actual vs forecast values.
Source: /api/alerts?type=calendar · Events with both actual + forecast · 1min
Distribution of economic surprise values (actual − forecast) across all releases.
Source: /api/alerts?type=calendar · actual - forecast · 2min refresh
Live countdown to the very next HIGH importance calendar event.
Source: /api/alerts?type=calendar · HIGH importance only · Live
Percentage of economic events that beat or missed forecasts this week.
Source: /api/alerts?type=calendar · 2min refresh
Economic event density by day of month. Darker = more events scheduled.
Source: /api/alerts?type=calendar · 5min refresh