V
VELARION
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VELARION
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Cross-asset correlations and market relationships
Gold typically falls when USD strengthens
XAUUSD
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DXY
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When yields fall (bond prices rise), gold often rallies
XAUUSD
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US10Y
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Gold often rises when stocks sell off (safe haven)
XAUUSD
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US500
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Oil is priced in USD — stronger dollar = cheaper oil
USOIL
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DXY
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EURUSD is the largest DXY component (57.6% weight)
EURUSD
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DXY
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Gold's relationship with key commodities — avg correlation coefficients (research-based)
Silver
XAGUSD
Avg corr.
0.85
Price
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Strong positive — precious metals move together
Platinum
PL=F
Avg corr.
0.55
Price
—
Moderate positive — precious metal group alignment
Crude Oil
USOIL
Avg corr.
0.45
Price
—
Moderate positive — both real assets, inflation hedge
Copper
HG=F
Avg corr.
0.40
Price
—
Moderate positive — economic growth proxy
Palladium
PA=F
Avg corr.
0.30
Price
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Low positive — industrial use causes divergence
Top 3 active themes from 0 news items — Gold implications
Bullish — inflation erodes purchasing power, drives gold demand
Rate cuts → Bullish. Rate hikes → Bearish (higher opportunity cost)
Bullish — safe-haven demand surges during geopolitical uncertainty
CPI, PPI, PCE releases — actual vs forecast & Gold impact
10Y Nominal Yield minus Inflation Rate — key Gold driver
Real Yield = Nominal Yield − Inflation
10Y Nominal
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CPI/PCE Est.
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Real Yield
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TNX=F (10Y yield) not available in price feed. No recent CPI/PCE actual data found in calendar feed.
Real Yield Formula
Real Yield = Nominal 10Y Yield − CPI/PCE Inflation Rate. When this goes negative, cash loses purchasing power.
Negative Real Yields → Gold Surges
Historical evidence: 2008–2011 and 2020–2022 negative real yield periods coincided with gold bull markets (+160%, +42%).
Positive Real Yields → Gold Pressure
When bonds offer real return above inflation, investors prefer them over non-yielding gold. Reduces gold demand.
Threshold to watch
Real yield below −1% historically signals strong gold upside. Above +2% signals structural headwind for gold.
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Gold & USD
Primary inverse relationship. DXY +1% ≈ Gold -0.5% typically.
Gold & Real Yields
Negative real yields (inflation > rates) are the strongest gold bullish driver.
Gold & VIX
In extreme fear events, gold and stocks can fall together (margin calls).
EUR/USD & Gold
Both inversely linked to USD. EUR/USD uptrend often coincides with gold uptrend.
Oil & Inflation
Rising oil → rising inflation expectations → gold supportive long-term.
Key economic releases grouped by macro category · Gold implications
Live detection of unusual cross-asset correlation breaks
| XAU | XAG | COPPER | PLAT | PALL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU | — | — | — | — | — |
| XAG | — | — | — | — | — |
| COPPER | — | — | — | — | — |
| PLAT | — | — | — | — | — |
| PALL | — | — | — | — | — |
Risk-On Assets
50%
BUY bias
Safe Haven Assets
50%
BUY bias
Implied DXY Direction
Neutral
Gold Correlation
Direct (Unusual)
Not enough signals to compute divergence.
Real yield vs. Gold inverse relationship
Gold flat — yield environment neutral or waiting for catalyst.
Inverse relationship
Real yields negative → Gold attractive vs bonds (no yield loss).
Real yield formula
Real Yield = Nominal 10Y Yield − CPI Inflation. Sub-zero = Gold bullish.
Historical precedent
2020–2022: Real yields hit -1% → Gold surged to $2,075 ATH.
Current signal
Gold flat — yield environment neutral or waiting for catalyst.
Educational panel. Real yield data not directly available — Gold direction used as proxy. Not trading advice.
Gold + Oil combined inflation signal
+0
Score / 2
NEUTRAL / UNCERTAIN
Based on intraday price changes of Gold and Oil — both rising = inflation hedge demand active
XAUUSD
Inflation hedge
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USOIL
Inflation driver
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BTC + Equities + Gold combined risk score
Score range -3 (extreme risk-off) to +3 (extreme risk-on). Intraday proxy only. Not a trading signal.
The yield curve shape reflects market expectations for growth and inflation. It is one of the most reliable leading indicators for risk sentiment and gold demand cycles.
Short-term rates < long-term rates. Signals economic expansion, increased risk appetite.
Risk-on environment reduces safe-haven demand. Equities favored over gold.
Short and long-term rates roughly equal. Transition phase — uncertainty about growth.
Mixed signals. Gold may consolidate. Watch for direction from macro data.
Short-term rates > long-term rates. Historically precedes recession. Risk-off dominates.
Recession fears drive safe-haven demand. Central bank easing expectations support gold.
Yield curve shape is derived from 2Y vs 10Y Treasury spread. Monitor US10Y - US2Y differential.
Insufficient signal data
High crypto–gold correlation = macro risk-on/off regime. Low correlation = idiosyncratic drivers.
Inflation channel: Rising energy prices → higher input costs → inflation expectations rise → Gold bullish as inflation hedge. Falling energy → deflation risk → reduces gold appeal.
Deflationary alignment — energy & gold both bearish
Based on live signal direction. Energy signals filtered for OIL/WTI/BRENT/GAS instruments.
High-impact events: importance ≥ 3. Asset reactions are typical patterns, not guaranteed outcomes.
Signal density is a proxy for market activity and liquidity conditions. Updated every 60s.
Derived from live signal direction data. Intraday proxy — not a trading recommendation.
USD direction inferred from news keywords. Not a trading recommendation.
| Asset | Live Price | Signal Direction | Buys | Sells |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | — | NO SIGNAL | 0 | 0 |
| Oil | — | NO SIGNAL | 0 | 0 |
| Dollar Index | — | NO SIGNAL | 0 | 0 |
| S&P 500 | — | NO SIGNAL | 0 | 0 |
| Bitcoin | — | NO SIGNAL | 0 | 0 |
| Bonds | — | NO SIGNAL | 0 | 0 |
Live price data requires direct market feed. Signal direction from live ESI API.
Grouped from live signal instruments. Phase from ESI signal metadata.
Overlap = same instrument appears in both sentiment and signal lists.
Counts filtered to today's date. Arrow flow shows data pipeline: News → Sentiment → Signals → Decision.
Risk score = news flow + signal activity + high-impact calendar events. Updates every 60s.
Compares last 1h vs prior 6h signal count per asset class. Leading class = rotation target.
Last 5 XAU/USD/GOLD news items matched to nearest Gold signal within 1h window.
Compares last 1h signal rate vs 6h average rate per category. Building = 1h rate above 6h avg x1.2.
Mon-Sun weekly window. Above 55% BUY = Risk-On, above 55% SELL = Risk-Off, else Balanced.
Signal count per asset class from live signal feed. Dominant = class with most signals right now.
USD proxy: EURUSD/GBPUSD/AUDUSD/NZDUSD SELL + USDJPY/USDCHF/USDCAD BUY = USD Strength.
Source: CFTC COT data via /api/cot. Educational context only — not a trading signal.
Historical commodity super-cycles average 15–20 years. Estimated phase based on 6yr elapsed since 2020. Source: Historical analysis. Not a price prediction.
Source: /api/signals + /api/cot?summary=true. COT data lags ~3 days. Educational context only.
Source: /api/signals (last 12h) + /api/cot?summary=true. Educational context only.
Source: /api/signals (last 2h signal shift analysis). Refreshes every 60s.
Source: /api/cot?summary=true · Non-commercial net COT positions. COT lags ~3 days. Educational only.
Last Updated
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Total Signals
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Tests 5 classic intermarket relationships based on current signal directions (last 4h).
Source: /api/signals · 60s · Last 4h window · Educational only.
Net direction score per asset class (BUY − SELL signals, last 4h).
Source: /api/signals · 60s · Last 4h window · Educational only.
Checks alignment between commodity currencies and underlying commodities (last 4h).
Source: /api/signals · 60s · Last 4h window · Educational only.
Composite risk: signal velocity + upcoming high-impact events + recent news flow.
Sources: /api/signals + /api/alerts?type=calendar · 60s · Educational only.
Signal direction bias per asset class for today UTC.
Source: /api/signals · 60s · Educational only.
Signal direction for major FX pairs and Gold in last 4h.
Source: /api/signals · 60s · Educational only.
Signal count per asset class × trading session.
Source: /api/signals · 300s · Educational only.
Active macro themes detected from news flow (last 24h).
Source: /api/alerts?type=news · 60s · Educational only.
Combined signal strength + COT alignment per asset class.
Sources: /api/signals · /api/cot?summary=true · 60s/300s · Educational only.
Cross-asset signal overview from the last 24h across all instrument classes.
Source: /api/signals · 60s · Educational only.
Latest signal direction per pair. USD-bloc vs Commodity-bloc bias comparison (last 24h).
Source: /api/signals · 60s · Educational only.
COT positioning across Gold, Bonds, and Equities to classify current risk regime.
Source: /api/cot?summary=true \u00b7 300s \u00b7 Educational only.
Top 5 biggest non-commercial net position changes vs prior week (COT data).
Source: /api/cot?summary=true \u00b7 300s \u00b7 Educational only.
Most recently active instruments from the last 60 minutes across all groups.
Source: /api/signals \u00b7 60s \u00b7 Educational only.
Asset classes ranked by signal activity in the last 24h. Most active = potential leader/laggard.
Source: /api/signals · 1min · Signal activity ranking · Educational only
Signal-based DXY vs Gold inverse relationship check across multiple timeframes.
DXY/USD signals vs XAU signals · Inverse correlation typical · 1min · Educational
Whether Oil, Copper, Silver and other commodities align with or diverge from Gold's signal bias.
Source: /api/signals · 24h window · 1min refresh · Educational only
Tracks 10Y Treasury / bond signal bias vs Gold. Inverse correlation is typical (bonds up = gold down).
Source: /api/signals · Bond/Yield + Gold keywords · 1min · Educational only
Composite risk-on / risk-off reading from intermarket signal flow in the last 4h.
Signal flow composite · 4h window · 1min refresh · Educational only
Groups of correlated instruments showing confluence of signal direction in the last 4h.
Source: /api/signals · 4h window · 1min refresh · Educational only
7-day momentum score for 8 key asset classes based on signal flow analysis.
Source: /api/signals · 7-day window · 2min refresh · Educational only
Weekly summary of key intermarket relationships and their expected vs actual behavior.
Source: /api/signals · 7-day window · 5min refresh · Educational only