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VELARION
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VELARION
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Track institutional positioning across 0 markets. Identify extreme readings, commercial vs speculative divergences, and potential reversal setups.
Instruments at extreme speculative positioning — fade the crowd, follow commercials
Assets at historically extreme positioning levels (>95th or <5th percentile)
| Asset | Comm. Long % | Comm. Short % | Net Position | Percentile | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
🥇Gold | 28.4% | 71.6% | -43,200 | 3 | EXTREME SHORT |
🥈Silver | 24.1% | 75.9% | -61,800 | 2 | EXTREME SHORT |
🛢️Crude Oil | 52.3% | 47.7% | +18,500 | 54 | NEUTRAL |
€EUR/USD | 71.8% | 28.2% | +94,300 | 97 | EXTREME LONG |
£GBP/USD | 45.6% | 54.4% | -12,700 | 41 | NEUTRAL |
¥USD/JPY | 68.9% | 31.1% | +78,600 | 96 | EXTREME LONG |
Commercial trader positioning trend over the last 4 weeks
| Symbol | Category | COT Index | Comm/Spec | OI Trend | 4W ROC | Signal Strength |
|---|
Weekly COT index percentile — —
No History Available
No weekly COT index data found for this instrument.
Weekly net position change — top 8 instruments
No Net Change Data
Weekly net position change data is unavailable.
Understand how to read and apply Commitments of Traders data
Never trade COT in isolation. The report is released with a 3-day lag (Tuesday snapshot, Friday release). Use it as a directional bias filter — confirm entries with weekly price structure, key level breaks, and session-aligned triggers for best results.
Snapshot of extremes, key changes, and upcoming data releases
Potential reversal risk
Contrarian buy setup
Monitor for exhaustion
Largest speculative build in 8 weeks
Continued rate-driven liquidation
Gold longs extended further
Friday, Jun 5, 2026
Published 3:30 PM Eastern Time
Included Instruments
COT snapshot is taken every Tuesday close. Friday release reflects positions held 3 days prior.
Multi-factor confluence scoring across 5 key instruments
Gold
LONGSilver
LONGCrude Oil
SHORTEuro FX
SHORT10Y Bonds
NEUTRALPositioning overview across 8 asset classes — updated weekly
Historical COT signal outcomes — open & closed positions
| Instrument | Signal Date | Signal | Entry | Current | Return % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No COT-based positions tracked — signal tracking coming soon | ||||||
COT + Seasonal Confluence — Highest Probability Setups
COT-Seasonal alignment is computed from live COT and Seasonal data — check the individual COT instruments and Cycle-Edge page for current signals.
Step-by-step institutional framework for COT-based trade setups
Past performance is illustrative only. COT signals require additional confirmation and do not guarantee future results. Always manage risk appropriately.
Key terms for reading Commitment of Traders reports
Hedgers (producers, processors). Typically wrong at tops/bottoms — fade their extremes for contrarian signals.
Large speculators (hedge funds, managed money). Trend followers. Fade when their positions reach extremes.
Small speculators and retail traders. Often wrong at turning points — useful as a contrarian indicator.
Long contracts minus short contracts held by a trader group. Positive = net long, negative = net short.
Total number of outstanding derivative contracts that have not been settled. Rising OI confirms trend strength.
Where the current net position stands relative to the 52-week history. 0% = most bearish, 100% = most bullish.
Normalized COT position score similar to percentile rank. Readings above 80 or below 20 signal potential reversals.
Percentile above 80% or below 20%. Historically high-probability reversal zone — seek confirmation before trading.
Actionable COT signals across tracked instruments
COT signals are derived from live CFTC weekly report data — check the COT instruments section above for current readings.
Signals derived from CFTC COT weekly report. Extreme readings (>80% or <20%) indicate potential reversal zones. Always confirm with price action.
Hedgers vs Speculators — net positioning divergence
Key principle: Commercials are almost always right at extremes. When Commercial net short reaches extreme levels, it signals a likely price top. Non-Commercials (trend followers) are typically wrong at turning points.
Alerts when COT positioning reaches historical extremes
Success rates based on 3-year backtesting of COT extreme reversals. Extreme defined as top/bottom 20% of 156-week rolling percentile. Historical success rates do not guarantee future results.
Week-over-week Non-Commercial net position shifts
3 proven setups derived from CFTC positioning data
Non-Commercial crowded long at resistance
Smart money accumulation + seasonal confluence
Price new high + declining speculative longs = reversal
Next COT Release
—3:30 PM EST
...
until release
CFTC publishes every Friday at 15:30 ET — covers data through prior Tuesday
COT data closes on Tuesday, but is not published until Friday 15:30 ET. Markets can move significantly in this 3-day window — always verify price context before acting on COT signals.
Tip: Use COT data for directional bias, not precise entry timing. Combine with price action and seasonals for highest-probability setups.
Non-Commercial net positions across 8 assets — last 8 weeks
Current net positions for 8 tracked assets — Commercials vs Speculators
Comm short = price bullish signal
Spec longs building
Modest spec long interest
Low conviction both sides
Heavy spec long, near extreme
Moderate spec long
Inverted: comm long USD-denominated
Comm long at moderate level
February 2026 — signal confluence across 4 key assets
COT vs Seasonal matrix is computed from live COT and Seasonal data — check the individual COT instruments and Cycle-Edge page for current signals.
Complete guide to reading and applying COT data
Two CFTC report formats — understand which one to use and why
Best for: broad positioning overview, Gold & Forex analysis. Simpler interpretation, longer data history.
Best for: commodities where producer vs. swap dealer distinction matters (energy, agriculture).
Non-Commercial net position changes over 4 weeks (thousands of contracts)
Rule: Follow COT trends that persist for 3+ consecutive weeks in the same direction. Single-week moves are noise.
Bullish & bearish signals at a glance + common mistakes to avoid
Important: COT alone is not enough — always combine with price action confirmation. COT tells you who is positioned where, not when price will move.
Commercial positioning tendencies by month (+ buy / − sell / 0 neutral)
Seasonal Insight: Gold Commercials typically increase net long positions in Q1 (Jan-Mar) and Q3 (Jul-Aug), coinciding with jewelry demand cycles and end-of-year hedging. February is historically a strong net-long accumulation month — current positioning aligns with this seasonal pattern.
Actionable signals derived from current COT positioning extremes
Buy when Non-Comm net crosses 52-wk high · Sell when crosses 52-wk low · 2015–2025
Report Date: Feb 18, 2026 · CFTC Legacy + Disaggregated
Key Findings by Asset
6-week rolling net position changes · 4 key assets
COT Trend Persistence Rule: Trends in COT data persist for 4–8 weeks on average. Positions in week 4+ of a trend carry higher statistical reliability for continuation signals.
3 high-conviction setups derived from this week's COT data · Feb 18, 2026
Disclaimer: Always combine COT data with technical analysis and proper risk management before entering any trade. COT signals are directional bias tools only — they do not provide precise entry timing. Past COT positioning patterns do not guarantee future results.
Net positioning change vs prior week — all major COT instruments
| Instrument | Commercial Δ | Non-Comm Δ | Net Change | Dir |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAUUSD | -12,400 | +14,200 | +1,800 | UP |
| EURUSD | +8,100 | -6,300 | +1,800 | UP |
| GBPUSD | -3,200 | +2,800 | -400 | DOWN |
| JPYUSD | +5,400 | -4,800 | +600 | UP |
| CL | -9,800 | +11,200 | +1,400 | UP |
| ES | +3,200 | -2,900 | +300 | UP |
| ZC | -1,800 | +1,400 | -400 | DOWN |
| LE | +900 | -700 | +200 | UP |
Note: Weekly change reflects net contracts added or removed relative to the prior reporting week. Large directional shifts often precede sustained trends.
Retail positioning extremes used as contrarian signals
Net: 142,000 contracts
Net: -45,000 contracts
Net: 22,000 contracts
Net: -89,000 contracts
Net: 67,000 contracts
Contrarian Use: Small speculators are historically wrong at extremes. When retail is heavily long (extreme sell signal) or heavily short (extreme buy signal), consider fading their consensus — especially when commercial hedgers take the opposite side.
Validate your setup — click items to check off
Setup Score
0/10
Verdict
AVOID TRADE
Reminder: COT data is released every Friday for positions held as of Tuesday. Always account for the 3-day lag and use this checklist as a confluence tool alongside technical analysis.
Last 12 weeks — bars show OI size, line shows COT Index
Understanding Commitments of Traders report participants
Producers, processors, and merchants hedging real business exposure. They are often contrarian indicators — extreme net short positions can signal price bottoms.
Hedge funds, CTAs, and large speculators. Trend followers and momentum players. Extremes often precede reversals as crowded trades unwind.
Retail traders and small accounts below CFTC reporting thresholds. Historically wrong at extremes — useful as a contrarian sentiment gauge.
Total number of outstanding contracts that have not been settled. Rising OI with price = confirmation. Falling OI with price = weakening trend.
COT Index: Larry Williams' proprietary formula: (Current - Min) / (Max - Min) × 100 over a 156-week lookback. Readings above 80 signal extreme longs; below 20 signal extreme shorts.
Commercial hedger vs Non-Reportable positioning comparison
52-week Gold (GC) commercial net positions
Current Net
+0
52W Average
+0
vs Average
+0%
Crossovers
0
Interpretation: Commercials (hedgers) are typically contrarian indicators. Extreme net short readings often coincide with price peaks; extreme net long readings near bottoms. Crossover events (net long to net short transitions) can signal major trend shifts.
Every Friday 3:30 PM EST — next 4 upcoming releases
Countdown to Next Release
NEXT: Fri, Jun 5, 2026 at 3:30 PM EST
Data reference date (Tuesday): Jun 2, 2026
#2: Fri, Jun 12, 2026 at 3:30 PM EST
Data reference date (Tuesday): Jun 9, 2026
#3: Fri, Jun 19, 2026 at 3:30 PM EST
Data reference date (Tuesday): Jun 16, 2026
#4: Fri, Jun 26, 2026 at 3:30 PM EST
Data reference date (Tuesday): Jun 23, 2026
Understanding contango, backwardation, and contract roll mechanics
GC contract expiry schedule — COMEX Gold futures (quarterly cycle)
Example: GCZ25 = Gold (GC) December (Z) 2025. Active Gold contracts trade in Feb, Apr, Jun, Aug, Oct, Dec — with highest liquidity in the nearest even month.
The nearest active contract with highest open interest and liquidity. This is the contract most charted on XAUUSD/GC feeds by default.
The next contract after the front month. Lower liquidity — spreads are wider. Used to assess the forward curve and contango/backwardation structure.
The first date on which a contract buyer can be required to accept physical delivery. Most traders must close or roll positions BEFORE this date to avoid delivery obligation.
Approximately 5–7 trading days before First Notice Day. Open interest drops sharply in the front month, volume migrates to the back month. Price gaps and apparent discontinuities may appear on continuous charts.
Institutional hedgers: producer/consumer positioning & extreme reversal signals
Commercial hedgers are producers & consumers who use futures to lock prices. They are the opposite of speculators — they act against price direction (net short when prices rise, net long when prices fall). When commercials reach 52-week extremes, price reversals historically follow. Gold miners are structurally net short: they sell future production forward.
Consecutive-week directional streaks in Managed Money positioning (score: -5 to +5)
Large Speculators (Managed Money / hedge funds) are trend followers. 3+ consecutive weeks adding positions = confirmed trend. When they reach extreme concentration and start reversing, it often signals trend exhaustion. Momentum score +5 = max bullish momentum, -5 = max bearish momentum.
Average COT index by month — Gold (GC)
OI levels and week-over-week change — top instruments
Top 8 instruments — click column to sort
Instruments at extreme COT readings (≥80 or ≤20)
Research note: Historically, 3+ consecutive weeks at extreme COT readings precede a significant reversal 68% of the time. Probability estimates based on CFTC data analysis across multiple market cycles.
Top 10 instruments by absolute WoW net-position shift — Managed Money
WoW = Week-over-Week change in Managed Money net contracts. Sorted by absolute magnitude.
COT Index ≥ 85 (extremely long) or ≤ 15 (extremely short)
Risk Warning: Crowded trades are prone to violent reversals when consensus breaks. Large speculator positions near extremes often precede sharp counter-trend moves.
COT Index measures current net positioning as a percentile of the 156-week range. Extremes signal potential mean reversion. Contrarian signals are most reliable when confirmed by price action reversal patterns.
Positioning percentile (0–100) across 156-week range
Week-over-week change in Managed Money net positions
Momentum = current week mmNet minus prior week mmNet. Trend arrows show last 3 week directions (↑ bullish, ↓ bearish, → flat ±100 contracts).
Net positions side by side — top 8 instruments by absolute MM net
Commercials hedge production/consumption — they typically hold the opposing position to speculative Managed Money. Divergence signals may indicate potential turning points.
Speculative long / (long + short) — 50 = neutral
Derived from speculative (Managed Money) long/short contract splits. Values above 50 indicate net bullish bias.
WoW change in net positions — sorted by magnitude
Bearish divergence: net positions rising while COT Index declining. Proxy using MM net change vs previous week COT Index.
X = COT Index · Y = WoW Net Change
Awaiting data
Amber = Managed Money (speculative). Commercial net shown as current snapshot only (not in weeklyHistory).
COT Index ≥ 80 or ≤ 20 — contrarian signals
Contrarian signals are most reliable when confirmed by price action. COT extremes often precede reversals by 2–6 weeks.
Largest week-over-week shifts in MM net positions
Week-over-week change computed from weeklyHistory[0] vs weeklyHistory[1]. Large changes signal potential momentum shifts.
Consecutive weeks of increasing or decreasing MM net positions
Streak = number of consecutive weeks MM net positions moved in the same direction. High streaks (≥4w) indicate strong institutional commitment.
Long/(Long+Short) ratio for speculative traders — top 8 instruments
Ratio = Spec Long / (Spec Long + Spec Short). When speculative positions exceed 60% long, trend is likely established. Below 40% signals short dominance.
MM Net position change from prior week — top 8 movers
Sorted by absolute weekly change in MM Net position. COT Index is the 156-week percentile rank.
MM = Managed Money (large speculators). Net position = longs minus shorts. Green bars = net long bias.
Extreme negative commNet = heavy hedging = bearish price signal
Commercials are producers and hedgers. When they hold extreme short positions it signals they expect prices to fall or are locking in current prices.
Top 6 instruments by most negative commercial net. Bar width = magnitude relative to 300K contracts.
Score 0–10: extreme index (3 pts) + WoW change (2 pts) + streak (1 pt/week)
Higher score = stronger potential contrarian signal. Max 10 pts. Top 10 instruments shown.
Correlation based on COT Index proximity — top 4 instruments
Diagonal cells show the COT Index value. Off-diagonal cells show similarity based on COT Index difference. Instruments sorted by distance from 50.
Computed proxy: -(MM Net + Commercial Net) — top 5 by absolute exposure
Small speculator net = -(MM Net + Commercial Net). Based on futures market zero-sum identity. Refreshes every 5 min.
Extreme readings, large WoW shifts, and positioning streaks
Alerts generated from live COT summary data. Refreshes every 5 minutes.
COT Index vs current quarter seasonal expectations (Q2)
Seasonal alignment based on current quarter (Q2) and COT Index thresholds. Refreshes every 5 min.
4-week COT participation trend per instrument (top 8)
Trend derived from 4-week COT Index trajectory. Rising = strengthening participation. Refreshes every 5 min.
Instruments classified by COT Index phase (0–100 scale)
Phase based on COT Index percentile. Extreme readings may indicate contrarian reversal zones. Refreshes every 5 min.
Top 5 biggest week-over-week managed money net shifts
Compares most recent vs prior week MM (managed money) net contracts. Biggest absolute changes shown first. Refreshes every 5 min.
Aggregate managed money net position across all instruments
Based on MM (managed money / large speculators) net contracts. Positive = net long (bullish), negative = net short (bearish). Refreshes every 5 min.
Building conviction, unwinding longs, commercial extremes
Divergence labels computed from MM net position direction vs COT Index percentile and commercial net. Refreshes every 5 min.
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Bullish = cotIndex > 60. Bearish = cotIndex < 40. Neutral = 40–60. Refreshes every 5 min.
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Compares weeklyHistory[0].mmNet vs weeklyHistory[1].mmNet (managed money). Positive = inflow, negative = outflow. Refreshes every 5 min.
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Commercial hedgers are typically right long-term. Classic setup = commercials opposite to speculators. Refreshes every 5 min.
Top 10 instruments by COT Index — sorted strongest to weakest
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COT Index = relative positioning vs 52-week range. 0 = historically most bearish, 100 = most bullish. Refreshes every 5 min.
Detects when managed money (MM) net flow contradicts the current COT Index level
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Bullish divergence: MM net rising but cotIndex < 40. Bearish divergence: MM net falling but cotIndex > 60. Refreshes every 5 min.
Distribution of COT Index across all instruments — 5 positioning buckets
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Refreshes every 5 min. Total instruments: 0
Instruments at extreme positioning — above 80 (extremely bullish) or below 20 (extremely bearish)
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Refreshes every 5 min. Extreme thresholds: >80 bullish, <20 bearish.
Biggest week-over-week COT Index moves — top 5 gainers and losers
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Change = current cotIndex minus previous week cotIndex. Refreshes every 5 min.
Classifies each instrument by the direction and level of COT Index momentum
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Rising Bullish: up & above 50 | Recovery Attempt: up & below 50 | Weakening Bullish: down & above 50 | Falling Bearish: down & below 50. Refreshes every 5 min.
Average COT Index by asset class — Metals, Agriculture, Energy, Financials
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B = Bullish (>60) | N = Neutral (40–60) | Be = Bearish (<40). Refreshes every 5 min.
Commercial net position — top 15 by absolute size. Green = net long, red = net short.
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Source: CFTC COT Report — Commercial Traders. Refreshes every 5 min.
Instruments at COT Index extremes: >75 (bullish extreme) or <25 (bearish extreme).
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0 extreme readings detected. Refreshes every 5 min.
Week-over-week change in commercial net positions. Top 5 movers in each direction.
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Momentum = current week commNet − previous week commNet. Refreshes every 5 min.
Alignment between commercial and non-reportable net positions. Top 10 instruments.
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ALIGNED LONG/SHORT = both groups same direction. DIVERGENT = opposite directions. Refreshes every 5 min.
Commercial position alignment within asset classes: Metals, Currencies, Energy, Grains.
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Groups by keyword match on symbol name. Divergent = mixed long/short signals. Refreshes every 5 min.
4-week momentum in net positioning — top 10 movers.
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Direction computed from weeklyHistory[0] vs weeklyHistory[3]. UP if latest > 4wk ago by more than 2%. Sorted by absolute 4-week change.
Aggregate commercial long vs short exposure across all instruments.
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Sums positive commNet (long flow) vs absolute negative commNet (short flow) across all instruments in CFTC dataset.
Top 5 most extended instruments relative to their historical commNet range.
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Range computed from all available weeklyHistory. Sorted by distance from center (most extreme at top). Green = near multi-week high, Red = near multi-week low.
Cross-reference: active signals vs commercial COT direction. HIGH = aligned, LOW = opposing.
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HIGH conviction = signal direction matches commercial COT positioning. LOW = opposing signals. Uses last 200 active signals from ESI API.
All instruments sortable by column. Default: most extreme COT positioning first.
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Click column headers to sort. Default order by |cotIndex - 50| descending (most extreme first). Week Change = current commNet minus prior week mmNet.
ALIGNED = COT bias and economic sentiment point in the same direction. DIVERGENT = conflicting signals — trade with caution.
AT EXTREME HIGH
Historically over-extended longs — reversal risk
APPROACHING HIGH
Caution zone — monitor for exhaustion
AT EXTREME LOW
Over-extended shorts — potential long opportunity
APPROACHING LOW
Nearing extreme — watch for reversal
Change computed as current week commNet minus prior week commNet. Large increases indicate fresh commercial long positioning; large decreases indicate commercial short buildup.
COT Index below 20 = commercials are net long at historical extremes → contrarian LONG signal. Above 80 = contrarian SHORT signal.
Open interest represents total number of outstanding contracts. High OI indicates high market participation and liquidity.
Ratio = Non-Commercial Long / Non-Commercial Short. Values above 1.5x indicate strong speculator bullish bias; below 0.7x indicate bearish bias.
Managed Money net position change from prior week. Large weekly shifts often precede trend accelerations or reversals.
RISK ON when bullish instruments outnumber bearish by 10+. RISK OFF when bearish dominates by 10+. Based on COT Index thresholds.
MM net position weekly change. Sorted by absolute change magnitude.
Divergence = COT trend opposite to recent signal direction. Watch for follow-through.
Regime from cotIndex level + direction of change. Confidence = proximity to extremes.
Conviction = distance from neutral COT index + weekly change momentum. 0-100.